Monitoring the monitors: How certifying international electoral observation quality can improveelection fraud deterrence1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22529/Palavras-chave:
election fraud, international electoral observation missions, fraud deterrence, democracy promotion, quality certificationResumo
Electoral fraud is a widespread crime whose ramifications affect human rights, democracy and political accountability. Numerous election observation missions have been organised since the 1960s to prevent electoral fraud. Despite the missions’ systematic improvement, and its many benefits, the decentralised nature of election observation has led to the coexistence of professional and non-professional or pseudo-observation missions. These unprofessional missions evade best practices and dilute the preventive potential of proper missions. This work examine how international election observation can be improved to removing incentives for non-professional missions. After analysing empirical evidence and limitations, this work proposes the establishment of an international mission certification agency to aid in enforcing standards and best practices among observing organisations.Downloads
Referências
AFRICAN UNION. (2013). Election observation manual. African Union Commission.
ALVAREZ, R. M., HALL, T. E. & HYDE, S. D. (Eds.) (2009). Election fraud: detecting and deterring electoral manipulation. Brookings Institution Press.
ASUNKA, J., BRIERLEY, S., GOLDEN, M., KRAMON, E. & OFOSU, G. (2019). Electoral fraud or violence: The effect of observers on party manipulation strategies. British Journal of Political Science, 49(1), 129-151. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123416000491
BADER, M. (2013). Crowdsourcing election monitoring in the 2011–2012 Russian elections. East European Politics, 29(4), 521-535. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2013.818979
BADER, J. (2014). China’s foreign relations and the survival of autocracies. Routledge.
BADER, J., GRÄVINGHOLT, J. & KÄSTNER, A. (2010). Would autocracies promote autocracy? A political economy perspective on regime-type export in regional neighbourhoods. Contemporary Politics, 16(1), 81-100. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569771003593904
BAILEY, D. (2009). Caught in the Act: Recent Federal Election Fraud Cases. In R. M. Alvarez, T. E. Hall and S. D. Hyde (Eds.) (2009). Election fraud: detecting and deterring electoral manipulation (pp. 102-111). Brookings Institution Press.
BEAULIEU, E. & HYDE, S. D. (2009). In the shadow of democracy promotion: Strategic manipulation, international observers, and election boycotts. Comparative Political Studies, 42(3), 392-415. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414008325571
BEBER, B. & SCACCO, A. (2012). What the numbers say: A digit-based test for election fraud. Political analysis, 20(2), 211-234. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps003
BECKER, G. S. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76, 169-217.
BIRCH, S. (2007). Electoral systems and electoral misconduct. Comparative Political Studies, 40(12), 1533-1556. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414006292886
BIRCH, S. (2011). Electoral malpractice. Oxford University Press.
BJORNLUND, E. (2004). Beyond free and fair: Monitoring elections and building democracy. Woodrow Wilson Center Press.
BRUSCO, V., NAZARENO, M. & STOKES, S. C. (2004). Vote buying in Argentina. Latin American research review, 9(2), 66-88.
BUZIN, A., BRONDUM, K. & ROBERTSON, G. (2016). Election observer effects: A field experiment in the Russian Duma election of (2011). Electoral Studies, 44, 184-191.
CALLEN, M. & LONG, J. D. (2015). Institutional corruption and election fraud: Evidence from a field experiment in Afghanistan. American Economic Review, 105(1), 354-81.http://doi.org/10.3886/E112875V1
CAROTHERS, T. (1997). The rise of election monitoring: The observers observed. Journal of Democracy, 8(3), 17-31.
CASAS, A., DÍAZ, G. & TRINDADE, A. (2017). Who monitors the monitor? Effect of party observers on electoral outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 145, 136-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2016.11.015
CLARKE, R. V. (1995). Situational crime prevention. Crime and justice, 19, 91-150.
Cotelo, C. (2017). Betanzos, espello electoral de España. RIPS: Revista de Investigaciones Políticas y Sociológicas, 16(2), 187-202.
DAXECKER, U. E. (2012). The cost of exposing cheating: International election monitoring, fraud, and post-election violence in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(4), 503-516. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312445649
DAXECKER, U. E. (2014). All quiet on election day? International election observation and incentives for pre-election violence in African elections. Electoral Studies, 34, 232-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2013.11.006
DAXECKER, U. & SCHNEIDER, G. (2014). Electoral observers: The implications of multiple monitors for electoral integrity. In P. Norris, R. W. Frank and F. M. I Coma (Eds.), Advancing electoral integrity (pp. 73-93). Oxford University Press.
DUNN, W. N. (2015). Public policy analysis. Routledge.
ENIKOLOPOV, R., KOROVKIN, V., PETROVA, M., SONIN, K. & ZAKHAROV, A. (2013). Field experiment estimate of electoral fraud in Russian parliamentary elections. Proceedings f the National Academy of Sciences, 110(2), 448-452. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1206770110
ELKLIT, J. & REYNOLDS, A. (2005). A framework for the systematic study of election quality. Democratization, 12(2), 147-162. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340500069204
ELKLIT, J. & SVENSSON, P. (1997). The rise of election monitoring: What makes elections free and fair? Journal of democracy, 8(3), 32-46.
ESCOBARI, D. & HOOVER, G. A. (2020). Evo Morales and electoral fraud in Bolivia: a natural experiment and discontinuity evidence. [Online]. [Accessed 26 July 2022]. www.cepr.net/images/stories/reports/escobari_and_hoover_original.pdf
EVANS, M. (2019). International policy transfer: Between the global and sovereign and between the global and local. In D. Stone & K. Moloney (Eds.) (2019). The Oxford handbook of global policy and transnational administration. Oxford University Press, Section 6.
FOUCAULT, M. (2000). Vigilar y castigar: nacimiento de la prisión. Siglo XXI.
FUKUMOTO, K. & HORIUCHI, Y. (2011). Making outsiders’ votes count: Detecting electoral fraud through a natural experiment. American Political Science Review, 105(3), 586-603. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000268
GARBER, L. (1984). Guidelines for International Election Observing. International Human Rights Law Group.
GARBER, L. & COWAN, G. (1993). The virtues of parallel vote tabulations. Journal of Democracy, 4(2), 95-107.
GEISLER, G. (1993). Fair? What has fairness got to do with it? Vagaries of election observations and democratic standards. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 31(4), 613-637.
HORCASITAS, R. P. (1997). La observación electoral: una modalidad de la militancia ciudadana. Revista Mexicana de Sociología, 59(2), 23-40.
HYDE, S. D. (2007). The observer effect in international politics: Evidence from a natural experiment. World politics, 60(1), 37-63.
HYDE, S. D. (2010). Experimenting in democracy promotion: international observers and the 2004 presidential elections in Indonesia. Perspectives on Politics, 8(2), 511-527. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592710001222
HYDE, S. D. (2011a). Catch us if you can: Election monitoring and international norm diffusion. American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 356-369. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00508.x
HYDE, S. D. (2011b). The pseudo-democrat’s dilemma: why election observation became an international norm. Cornell University Press.
HYDE, S. D. & MARINOV, N. (2012). Which elections can be lost?. Political analysis, 20(2), 191-210. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpr040
HYDE, S. D. & MARINOV, N. (2014). Information and self-enforcing democracy: The role of international election observation. International Organization, 68(2), 329-359. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000465
HYDE, S. D. & O’MAHONY, A. (2010). International scrutiny and pre-electoral fiscal manipulation in developing countries. The Journal of Politics, 72(3), 690-704. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022381610000101
ICHINO, N. & SCHÜNDELN, M. (2012). Deterring or displacing electoral irregularities? Spillover effects of observers in a randomized field experiment in Ghana. The Journal of Politics, 74(1), 292-307. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381611001368
KELLEY, J. (2008a). Assessing the complex evolution of norms: the rise of international election monitoring. International Organization, 62(2), 221-255. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818308080089
KELLEY, J. (2008b). The more the merrier? The effects of having multiple international election monitoring organizations. Perspectives on Politics, 7(1), 59-64. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592709090094
KELLEY, J. (2009). D-minus elections: The politics and norms of international election observation. International Organization, 63(4), 765-787. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818309990117
KELLEY, J. G. (2012). Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observation Works, and Why It Often Fails. Princeton University Press.
KLIMEK, P., YEGOROV, Y., HANEL, R. & THURNER, S. (2012). Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(41), 16469-16473. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210722109
KNACK, S. (2004). Does foreign aid promote democracy? International studies quarterly, 48(1), 251-266. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0020-8833.2004.00299.x
LEEMANN, L. & BOCHSLER, D. (2014). A systematic approach to study electoral fraud. Electoral Studies, 35, 33-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.03.005
LEEFFERS, S. & VICENTE, P. C. (2019). Does electoral observation influence electoral results? Experimental evidence for domestic and international observers in Mozambique. World Development, 114, 42-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.09.021
LEHOUCQ, F. (2003). Electoral fraud: Causes, types, and consequences. Annual review of political science, 6(1), 233-256. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.6.121901.085655
LEHOUCQ, F. E. & MOLINA, I. (2002). Stuffing the ballot box: fraud, electoral reform, and democratization in Costa Rica. Cambridge University Press.
LITTLE, A. T. (2012). Elections, fraud, and election monitoring in the shadow of revolution. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 7(3), 249-283. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00011078
MAGALONI, B. (2010). The game of electoral fraud and the ousting of authoritarian rule. American journal of political science, 54(3), 751-765. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00458.x
MAZEROLLE, L. & RANSLEY, J. (2006). Third party policing. Cambridge University Press.
MEBANE, W. R. & KALININ, K. (2009). Comparative election fraud detection. [Online]. [Accessed 26 July 2022]. https://papers.ssrn.com/Sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1450078
MOLINA, I. & LEHOUCQ, F. E. (1999). Political competition and electoral fraud: A Latin American case study. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 30(2), 199-234.
MUÑOZ-POGOSSIAN, B. & VELOSO, D. Á. (2015). La responsabilidad de observar: Repensando la observación electoral de la OEA. América Latina Hoy, 70, 55-76. https://doi.org/10.14201/alh2015705576
MURISON, J. (2013). Judicial politics: election petitions and electoral fraud in Uganda. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 7(3), 492-508. https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2013.811026
NEVITTE, N. & CANTON, S. A. (1997). The rise of election monitoring: the role of domestic observers. Journal of Democracy, 8(3), 47-61.
Organization of American States [OAS]. (2007). Methods for Election Observation: A Manual for OAS Electoral Observation Missions. OAS.
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe [OSCE]. (2010). Election Observation Handbook. OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
PLANCHUELO, V. C. P. (2017). La ‘observación’ electoral de la OEA vs. el ‘acompañamiento’ de UNASUR en las recientes elecciones de Venezuela. América Latina Hoy, 75, 127- 148. https://doi.org/10.14201/alh201775127148
RATCLIFFE, J. H., TAYLOR, R. B., ASKEY, A. P., THOMAS, K., GRASSO, J., BETHEL, K. J. & KOEHNLEIN, J. (2020). The Philadelphia predictive policing experiment. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 17, 15-41.
ROUSSIAS, N. & RUIZ-RUFINO, R. (2018). “Tying incumbents’ hands”: The effects of election monitoring on electoral outcomes. Electoral Studies, 54, 116-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.005
RUNDLETT, A. & SVOLIK, M. W. (2016). Deliver the vote! micromotives and macrobehavior in electoral fraud. American Political Science Review, 110(1), 180-197.
SCHAFFER, F. C. (Ed.) (2007). Elections for sale: The causes and consequences of vote buying. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
SCHEDLER, A. (2002). Elections without democracy: The menu of manipulation. Journal of democracy, 13(2), 36-50.
SHERMAN, L. W., MACKENZIE, D. L., FARRINGTON, D. P. AND WELSH, B. C. (Eds.) (2002). Evidence-based crime prevention. Routledge.
SIMPSER, A. (2005). Making votes not count: Strategic incentives for electoral corruption. Stanford University.
SIMPSER, A. AND DONNO, D. (2012). Can international election monitoring harm governance? The Journal of Politics, 74(2), 501-513. DOI: 10.1017/S002238161100168X
SJOBERG, F. M. (2012). Making voters count: Evidence from field experiments about the efficacy of domestic election observation. [Online]. Columbia University Harriman Institute. [Accessed 26 July 2022]. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2133592
SKOVORODA, R. AND LANKINA, T. (2017). Fabricating votes for Putin: new tests of fraud and electoral manipulations from Russia. Post-Soviet Affairs, 33(2), 100-123.
TUCKER, J. A. (2007). Enough! Electoral fraud, collective action problems, and post-communist colored revolutions. Perspectives on politics, 5(3), 535-551. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592707071538
UNITED NATIONS. (10 December 1948). Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Resolution n° 217). https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights
UNITED NATIONS. (16 December 1966). International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (Resolution 2[200A (XXI)]). un-ilibrary.org/content/books/9789210594660s003-c008/read.
UNITED NATIONS. (2005). Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation and Code of Conduct for International Election Observers. United Nations. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime [UNODC]. (2015). International classification of crime for statistical purposes.
VICENTE, P. C. (2014). Is vote buying effective? Evidence from a field experiment in West Africa. The Economic Journal, 124(574), 356-387.
VIGNA, A. (2010). The parody of Electoral observation. NACLA Report on the Americas, 43(2), 14-16.
Vlăsceanu, l., GrünberG, l. & Pârlea, D. (2004). Quality assurance and accreditation: A glossary of basic terms and definitions. Unesco-Cepes.
WANTCHEKON, L. (2003). Clientelism and voting behavior: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin. World politics, 55(3), 399-422. https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2003.0018
WEISBURD, D. AND ECK, J. E. (2004). What can police do to reduce crime, disorder, and fear?. The annals of the American academy of political and social science, 593(1), 42-65.
Arquivos adicionais
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2024 Studia Politicæ
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.