World Order and Shared Hegemony. A Divided Global South and Two Competing Norths

Abstract

This article analyzes the reconfiguration of the contemporary global order, moving beyond traditional views of a geographical shift of power toward the Asia-Pacific region, the emergence of a fragmented world, or the rise of non-state actors that relegate the state to a secondary role. To this end, it introduces the concepts of hegemonic interdependence and shared hegemony, arguing that asymmetric preponderance in the international system has not disappeared, but is instead distributed. This structural condition is characterized by the existence of two major constellations of power that monopolize, in distinct, irreplaceable, and overlapping ways, the multiple circuits of global interconnection across the sociopolitical, coalitional, economic, security, technological, and ideological dimensions. To operationalize this dynamic, the study proposes a quadrangular matrix of global power structured into four dynamic blocs. On the one hand, the Western North, led by the United States and Europe, retains nominal hegemony by controlling established financial and institutional circuits. On the other hand, the Eastern North, with China and Russia at the helm, concentrates the highest density of relative power and is rapidly building alternative emerging networks to challenge that monopoly. In turn, the global South is divided into an Eastern South, composed of economies aligned with the Sino-Russian orbit that are critical of the unipolar order, and a Western South, where India’s reclassification stands out, as it actively mediates between the two Norths to maximize its own strategic autonomy. Finally, it is concluded that this transitional reconfiguration remains stable not because of a lack of normative affinities or the preponderance of one “North” over the other, but because of a deep reciprocal functional dependence between the two, since a disconnection between them would be excessively costly for the system. The evolutionary resolution of this matrix of shared hegemony—whether it leads to a Western restoration, a dominance of the Northeast, or genuine multipolarity—will not depend exclusively on the dominant powers. On the contrary, the course of the global order will be defined in the spaces of the South through their decisions regarding alignment, their capacity for agency, and the construction of their own circuits of strategic autonomy vis-à-vis both Norths.